{"id":38482,"date":"2021-05-20T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-20T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.embl.org\/news\/?p=38482"},"modified":"2024-03-22T11:11:12","modified_gmt":"2024-03-22T10:11:12","slug":"just-the-gist-big-data-and-pandemics-in-seven-key-points","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.embl.org\/news\/events\/just-the-gist-big-data-and-pandemics-in-seven-key-points\/","title":{"rendered":"Just the gist: Big data and pandemics in seven key points"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The use of data has played a central role in the COVID-19 pandemic, but it should come as no surprise that researchers are already looking at ways to improve data acquisition, management, and access. EMBL\u2019s most recent Science and Society seminar, \u2018Harnessing Big Data to Monitor and Tackle Pandemics<\/a>\u2019, featured a panel of three speakers who shared their experiences and conclusions about these topics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ilaria Capua<\/a>, Director of the One Health Center of Excellence at the University of Florida, explained why the concept of ‘circular health’ could transform what we know about pandemics and how we address them. Enrico Bucc<\/a>i<\/a>, Director of the System Biology programmes at Temple University in Philadelphia, discussed the limitations of big data and the idea of long-term pandemic forecasting. And Rolf Apweiler<\/a>, Director of EMBL\u2019s European Bioinformatics Institute (EMBL-EBI) and Senior Scientist, focused on the ways in which big data is most suited to answering specific questions about the pandemic. Ewan Birney<\/a>, EMBL Deputy Director General and Director of EMBL-EBI, moderated the discussion and took questions from the audience.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here are seven key messages to take away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. The COVID-19 pandemic is the most measured event in human history.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As the panellists acknowledge, this pandemic has generated and continues to generate a deluge of data on virus genomics, patient symptoms, COVID-19 test results, treatment approaches, safety and effectiveness of vaccines, and data related to geography, the environment, and animal vectors. Rather than presenting one clear picture, these are more like puzzle pieces on the floor, as Rolf describes them. The result has been disparate interpretations from different fields of science. The good news is that scientists have a lot of information \u2013 even about new viral variants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Having a lot of data is not a panacea.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Even though researchers have tremendous amounts of information, there\u2019s a limit to what it can do. Described by Enrico as \u201cdeterministic chaos\u201d, the COVID-19 pandemic is a situation where we may know all the previous circumstances we\u2019ve been in, but we still can\u2019t say what will happen next because the system is chaotic. In these situations, there\u2019s a limit to how accurately we can predict when the next wave will start or how long it will last. We also need to continue improving our ability to mine the data and to do so quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Be critical of your data.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Researchers who work with only part of the data may only see part of the story. It\u2019s incumbent on researchers to be sceptical of their data, tracking back to evaluate its coherence and integrity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Collaboration is crucial.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Scientific collaboration provides many benefits: most importantly, a broader perspective that can bring together scientific disciplines and provide a more meaningful understanding of risks of infection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. There\u2019s value in near-casting.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

While there may be limitations to long-term forecasting, there\u2019s potential for near-casting (e.g. a 10-day forecast of the pandemic in your neighbourhood). After ten days, models can diverge a lot.  And ‘now-casting’ is equally important, if not more important, says Ewan. Unfortunately, our understanding of ‘now’ is rather imprecise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. One of the challenges is that human beings don\u2019t see themselves as animals.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

People live in the context of their environments, not in isolation. Ilaria outlined the idea of ‘circular health’, which aims to \u201cco-advance what we know about humans, plants, and animals in one system\u201d. Collaborative, international research is central to gaining a better understanding of diseases that move between animals and humans, and the way this transmission is connected to the changing environments we share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

7. Policymakers and politicians need to know science.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The question-and-answer session highlighted the need for policymakers to understand science if they\u2019re to develop effective policies and communicate meaningful messages to the public. That can mean electing scientists and science-literate candidates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Want more than just the highlights? Watch the whole panel discussion online.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

\n\n\n

Big data e pandemie in sette punti chiave<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Il convegno EMBL di Scienza e Societ\u00e0 esamina le opportunit\u00e0 e i limiti dei big data nell’affrontare le pandemie presenti e future.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"A
I partecipanti a un recente seminario dell’EMBL di Scienza e Societ\u00e0 hanno esaminato come sfruttare al meglio i big data per affrontare la pandemia COVID-19 e altre in futuro. Credits: Adobe Stock; Rayne Zaayman-Gallant\/EMBL<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

L’uso dei dati \u00e8 stato centrale nella pandemia COVID-19, ma non sorprende certo che i ricercatori stiano gi\u00e0 esplorando come migliorare l’acquisizione, la gestione e l’accesso a questi dati.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019EMBL ne ha parlato in un recente evento dedicato a Scienza e Societ\u00e0, “Harnessing Big Data to Monitor and Tackle Pandemics<\/a>” (\u201cRaccogliere dati per monitorare e affrontare la pandemia\u201d), che ha visto la partecipazione di tre relatori che hanno condiviso le loro esperienze e riflessioni su queste questioni.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ilaria Capua<\/a>, Direttrice del One Health Center of Excellence presso l’Universit\u00e0 della Florida, ha spiegato perch\u00e9 il concetto di ‘salute circolare’ sia in grado di trasformare potenzialmente ci\u00f2 che sappiamo sulle pandemie e il modo in cui le affrontiamo. Enrico Bucci<\/a>, Direttore dei programmi di biologia dei sistemi alla Temple University di Philadelphia, ha discusso i limiti dei big data<\/em> e l\u2019idea di utilizzarli per prevedere l\u2019andamento delle pandemie a lungo termine. Rolf Apweiler<\/a>, Direttore dell’Istituto Europeo di Bioinformatica dell’EMBL (EMBL-EBI) e Senior Scientist, ha illustrato come i big data<\/em> siano i pi\u00f9 adatti a rispondere a domande specifiche sulla pandemia. Infine, Ewan Birney<\/a>, vice Direttore Generale dell’EMBL e direttore dell’EMBL-EBI, ha moderato la discussione e ha risposto alle domande del pubblico. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ecco sette messaggi chiave da portare a casa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. La pandemia COVID-19 \u00e8 l’evento pi\u00f9 misurato nella storia umana.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Come riconosciuto dai relatori, questa pandemia ha generato e continua a generare un\u2019incredibile mole di dati sulla genomica del virus, sui sintomi dei pazienti, sui risultati dei test COVID-19, sugli approcci terapeutici, sulla sicurezza e l’efficacia dei vaccini e sui dati relativi alla geografia, all’ambiente e ai vettori animali. Piuttosto che presentare un quadro chiaro, queste informazioni sono sparpagliate come un mucchio di pezzi di un puzzle sul pavimento, dice Apweiler. Questo ha portato alle interpretazioni pi\u00f9 disparate da parte di ricercatori provenienti da diversi campi della scienza. Ma la buona notizia \u00e8 che gli scienziati hanno a disposizione molte informazioni – anche sulle nuove varianti virali.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Avere molti dati non \u00e8 una panacea.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Anche se i ricercatori hanno una quantit\u00e0 enorme di informazioni, il loro utilizzo non \u00e8 illimitato. La pandemia COVID-19, che Bucci descrive come ‘caos deterministico’, \u00e8 una situazione in cui, per quanto possiamo conoscere tutte le circostanze da cui veniamo, non possiamo dire esattamente cosa accadr\u00e0 perch\u00e9 il sistema \u00e8 caotico. In queste situazioni, c’\u00e8 un limite alla precisione con cui possiamo prevedere quando inizier\u00e0 la prossima ondata o quanto durer\u00e0. Dobbiamo anche continuare a migliorare la nostra capacit\u00e0 di estrarre i dati e farlo rapidamente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Siate critici nei confronti dei vostri dati.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

I ricercatori che lavorano solo con una parte dei dati possono essere in grado di vedere solo una parte della storia. \u00c8 compito dei ricercatori essere scettici nei confronti dei propri dati, monitorandoli per valutarne la coerenza e l’integrit\u00e0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. La collaborazione \u00e8 cruciale.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

La collaborazione scientifica garantisce molti benefici: il pi\u00f9 importante dei quali \u00e8 la visione d\u2019insieme, che permette di mettere insieme discipline scientifiche diverse e di fornire una comprensione pi\u00f9 significativa dei rischi di infezione.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. Le previsioni a breve termine sono importanti.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Mentre ci possono essere limiti nelle previsioni a lungo termine, c’\u00e8 invece del potenziale concreto nelle previsioni a breve termine (ad esempio, una previsione a 10 giorni dell\u2019andamento della pandemia in un determinato quartiere). Oltre i dieci giorni, invece, i modelli possono divergere molto.  E il cosiddetto ‘now-casting<\/em>‘, la previsione sull\u2019 ‘adesso’, \u00e8 altrettanto importante, se non di pi\u00f9, dice Birney. Purtroppo, la nostra comprensione dell\u2019 ‘adesso’ \u00e8 piuttosto imprecisa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. Una delle sfide \u00e8 che gli esseri umani non si vedono come animali.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Le persone vivono nel contesto dei loro ambienti, non in isolamento. Capua ha descritto l’idea di ‘salute circolare’, che mira a \u201cmigliorare la nostra comprensione di uomini, piante e animali in un sistema unico\u201d. La ricerca collaborativa e internazionale \u00e8 centrale per comprendere meglio le malattie che si si trasmettono tra animali ed esseri umani, e il modo in cui questa trasmissione \u00e8 collegata agli ambienti in evoluzione che condividiamo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

7. La politica e i politici hanno bisogno della scienza.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

La sessione di domande e risposte ha evidenziato la necessit\u00e0 per i politici di comprendere la scienza, per sviluppare politiche efficaci e comunicare messaggi significativi al pubblico. Questo pu\u00f2 anche significare promuovere l\u2019elezione di personalit\u00e0 scientifiche e candidature di persone che conoscano la scienza.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Volete conoscere i dettagli del dibattito? Potete seguire l\u2019intero evento online<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EMBL\u2019s most recent Science and Society seminar explored how best to harness big data to address multi-faceted issues of a pandemic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":100,"featured_media":38556,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17595,4],"tags":[125,1331,36,1343,514,1329,60],"embl_taxonomy":[9788],"class_list":["post-38482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-connections","category-events","tag-big-data","tag-covid-19","tag-embl-ebi","tag-pandemic","tag-rome","tag-sars-cov-2","tag-science-and-society","embl_taxonomy-embl-rome"],"acf":{"featured":true,"show_featured_image":false,"color":"#007B53","link_color":"#fff","article_intro":"

EMBL Science and Society panel examines opportunities and limitations for big data in addressing present and future pandemics<\/p>\n","related_links":[{"link_description":"Harnessing Big Data to Monitor and Tackle Pandemics","link_url":"https:\/\/www.embl.de\/aboutus\/science_society\/infectious-disease-and-society\/harnessing-big-data\/index.html"},{"link_description":"Enrico Bucci biography","link_url":"https:\/\/bio.cst.temple.edu\/cgi-bin\/get_person?email=enrico.bucci@temple.edu"},{"link_description":"Ilaria Capua biography","link_url":"https:\/\/onehealth.ifas.ufl.edu\/about\/one-health-center-of-excellence-team-directory\/ilaria-capua-profile\/"},{"link_description":"The European Bioinformatics Institute","link_url":"https:\/\/www.ebi.ac.uk\/"},{"link_description":"COVID-19 Data 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