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5th
EMBL/EMBO Joint Conference 2004 |
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Session II |
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| Will human life expectancy decline in the 21st century? |
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Forecasts of human
life expectancy are an important component of public
policy because they influence the funding for, and
solvency of, age-entitlement programs. In the United
States the Social Security Administration [SSA]
recently decided to raise their estimates of how
long Americans are going to live in the 21st century.
However, current trends in childhood and adult obesity
in the U.S. and other low mortality populations
and the global re-emergence of communicable diseases,
pose serious threats to the health and longevity
of present and future generations. Furthermore,
death rates and life expectancy at older ages in
the U.S. have remained relatively constant for the
past twenty years. In this talk empirical evidence
is presented demonstrating the existence of these
trends and their possible affect on life expectancy,
as well as the public health measures required to
mitigate them is discussed. We believe there is
sufficient evidence to support the conclusion that
unless broad scale public health measures are enacted
to address the obesity epidemic and rise of communicable
diseases, human life expectancy could decline in
the 21st century.
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